Across the world, a series of so-called strong men are now in charge, and they are prepared to do anything to remain in power.
In this episode, we'll discuss who the key "strong men" are, how they came to power, and what this means for the world.
[00:00:05] Hello, hello hello, and welcome to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.
[00:00:11] The show where you can listen to fascinating stories, and learn weird and wonderful things about the world at the same time as improving your English.
[00:00:20] I'm Alastair Budge, and today we are going to be talking about an important political shift: the rise of the political strongman.
[00:00:29] Across the world, a series of so-called strong men are now in charge.
[00:00:33] Leaders who position themselves as strong and powerful, a defender of their citizens and their values, and men who are prepared to do anything to remain in power.
[00:00:44] So, in this episode we’ll discuss how this happened, who some of the key “strong men” are, the strategies that unite them all, and what this means for the world.
[00:00:56] OK then, The Rise Of The Modern Strongman.
[00:01:01] The famous political theorist Niccolò Macchiavelli once wrote, “Men judge generally more by the eye than by the hand, for everyone can see and few can feel. Everyone sees what you appear to be, few really know what you are.”
[00:01:21] Macchiavelli had a firm understanding of the importance of perception; what seems to be, rather than what is.
[00:01:31] Fast forward 400 years or so, and his countryman, and one of the fathers of the modern strongman, Benito Mussolini, had his own reasons to think carefully about this advice.
[00:01:45] Appearance is more important than reality.
[00:01:49] Mussolini, as you may know or as you may remember from episode number 343, was a journalist by training, and knew all too well the power of the press, the power of a persuasive article and a powerful picture.
[00:02:06] Mussolini wanted to present himself as a strong and powerful leader, someone who could lead a newly-unified Italy into the modern world.
[00:02:18] Mussolini’s problem, however, or at least something he felt acutely, was that he was very short, he was not a tall man.
[00:02:28] At 1.69 m, he would have been looked down on by much of the male population and a good chunk of the female population at the time.
[00:02:39] Although he was a powerful public speaker and was more than capable of inspiring a crowd, his stature posed him a problem. He thought that if people saw his small stature, his words would not have the same powerful impact.
[00:02:57] He solved this, reportedly, by a combination of making sure that he was always photographed from below, so that he appeared tall in photos, and standing on a box to make himself seem taller to the crowd, and therefore stronger and more powerful, more of a leader.
[00:03:17] Clearly, it worked, or at least he was able to project the image of a strong and decisive leader and as you will know, he went on to rule Italy for two decades.
[00:03:30] And Mussolini set an example that was followed by leaders not just in Europe, but all over the world.
[00:03:38] Think of a man, often clad in military gear, standing up straight with his chin jutting out.
[00:03:46] He is on a podium surrounded by flags, medals shining on his puffed out chest, as he takes the salute with his admiring soldiers marching rhythmically past.
[00:03:57] Now, you could replace Mussolini with a wide array of different leaders, from Franco in Spain, to Hitler in Germany or Stalin in the Soviet Union.
[00:04:08] They were a recognisable type – they caused massive, untold bloodshed and chaos across the world.
[00:04:16] But, with a few exceptions such as Franco in Spain, Mao in China or Pinochet in Chile, this type of strongman leader tended to fizzle out, at least in the countries where they had previously been popular.
[00:04:33] In most Western democracies at least, the post-war political landscape tended to be characterised by leaders who displayed a subtler approach to power, rather than indulging in authoritarian showmanship.
[00:04:48] After all, the international system that was created in the aftermath of the Second World War favoured a more pragmatic, rules-based approach to politics, the kind of international system which favoured a subtler and more diplomatic approach to politics.
[00:05:06] Global organisations such as the United Nations and International Monetary Fund were founded, and playing by the rules, obeying international law and being a democracy would give countries natural advantages.
[00:05:20] Indeed, in the aftermath of the war, as well as the process of decolonisation, there was a boom in the number of people living under democratic political systems.
[00:05:32] In 1945 there were only 12 democracies in the world. By 2002 there were 92, and there has been a general trend towards more open political systems and governments not dominated by one individual.
[00:05:48] But look around the political stage in 2023, or if you're listening to this in 2024, then I'm sure in 2024 and you will find dozens of leaders who buck this trend, they do not follow this example.
[00:06:04] Stylistically at least, they have more in common with people like Benito Mussolini than the leaders of liberal democracies in the late 20th century.
[00:06:14] From Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, India’s Narendra Modi to the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the former US President, Donald Trump, the political stage is filled with modern political “strongmen”.
[00:06:34] So, what’s going on?
[00:06:37] Why did strongmen “die out” for a period of 50 years or so, only to reemerge in the 21st century?
[00:06:45] Clearly, this is a vast and complicated topic, and the reasons for the rise of Modi are different to that of Vladimir Putin or Benjamin Netanyahu or Donald Trump.
[00:06:57] So, rather than examining the often unique circumstances and characteristics of every global strongman, we are going to split this episode into three parts.
[00:07:08] First, we’ll look at some of the common factors that brought the strongmen to power.
[00:07:13] Then, we’ll look at some of the common characteristics of the modern strongman.
[00:07:18] And finally, we’ll look at the effect of the world being strongmanified, and ask ourselves what comes next.
[00:07:26] So, firstly, what are some of the key factors that caused the rise of the modern strongman?
[00:07:33] Well there are five key factors that commentators typically point at.
[00:07:39] First, economic instability and inequality. Globalisation has created great wealth, but in developed and less developed countries, as we all know, this wealth is far from evenly distributed. For people who feel like they have been left behind by globalisation, a strongman who promises a return to a former situation where things were rosier, well this can be an attractive proposition.
[00:08:09] Secondly, and related to globalisation, mass immigration and large cultural changes. Change is scary, and the strongman typically positions himself as a guardian of the national identity, someone who will protect a country against a wave of people who look and sound…different and dangerous.
[00:08:35] Thirdly, the inefficiency of the existing governmental institutions. Donald Trump made a campaign promise to “drain the swamp”, describing Washington and the US government apparatus as filled with corrupt career politicians who cared more about lining their pockets than working for US citizens, and it was an incredibly effective message.
[00:09:00] Fourth, technological developments have made it far easier to spread information. The original strongman, Mussolini, was a journalist at heart, and he knew the power of controlling the information that the Italian people received. He was one of the first leaders to record his speeches so that they could be spread all over Italy, harnessing what was at the time the cutting edge technology of radio to amplify his message.
[00:09:30] And fast forward almost 100 years, and whether it’s social media in the Facebook or TikTok sense, or simple messaging apps like Whatsapp, the fact that information can be transferred so quickly and easily has created a fertile ground for polarising beliefs, which attract people to more polarising candidates, and strongmen are nothing if not polarising.
[00:09:57] And on this note, the fifth and final factor to mention is this increased polarisation of political beliefs, the increasing difference between those on the right and those on the left, and the shrinking space in the political centre.
[00:10:14] If we take the United States as an example, according to a recent Pew Research study, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican.
[00:10:33] In other words, there is very little overlap in political beliefs, the right has gone further to the right and the left has gone further to the left.
[00:10:43] To quote W.B. Yeats, “the centre cannot hold”, the political centre is, in many countries, an empty and lonely place.
[00:10:54] So, to recap, the five key factors that tend to be cited by commentators for creating the fertile ground for the modern strongman were economic instability and inequality,
[00:11:06] immigration and cultural changes, weak or inefficient institutions, technological developments and political polarisation.
[00:11:16] Of course, there are others in particular cases: religious division in the case of Modi in India, and national security in the case of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, but these five factors are ones that are most commonly seen in the countries in which strongmen have come to power.
[00:11:34] Now, let’s move on to look at some of the themes that unite the modern strongmen themselves, as individuals.
[00:11:43] The first one is that they tend to be men.
[00:11:47] You might have noted that I’ve referred to these strongmen as “he”, rather than the more gender neutral “they”, but the reality is, for better or for worse, the strongman genre has been almost unanimously male.
[00:12:04] If we go back a few decades, we could classify someone like “The Iron Lady”, Margaret Thatcher, as having “strongman” characteristics.
[00:12:14] And Giorgia Meloni, the female Prime Minister of Italy, could be categorised as a “modern strongman”. But, as of the time of recording this episode at least, she hasn't been quite as authoritarian as many of her critics feared.
[00:12:30] So, that’s our first theme that unites the modern strongman: they tend to be male.
[00:12:37] Secondly, the 21st century strongman is typically deeply nationalistic, promoting patriotism and loyalty to the nation state above global cooperation. No international alliance trumps the national interest.
[00:12:54] And thirdly, on a related note, the strongman is almost without exception anti-foreigner and anti-immigration. Our country is full as is, he says, we must tighten the borders and stop the flow of foreigners.
[00:13:11] The foreigner is almost always the enemy of the strongman, but he will usually add some more enemies in for good measure, scapegoats to point at and say “hey, these people are causing all of our problems”.
[00:13:26] Ethnic or religious minorities, the media, foreign countries, academics and intellectuals, political opponents, of course, and the global system more generally.
[00:13:37] Now, you might be listening to this and shaking your head, thinking “but group x or y are actually the root cause of many of our problems”, and this might be the case.
[00:13:48] I’m not suggesting that these are always wrong, but rather that the strongman is prepared to draw attention to a chosen enemy in a way that more traditional, mainstream politicians are not.
[00:14:02] Thirdly, the strongman will also flaunt international rules and norms, simply disregarding them as unnecessary, a minor inconvenience rather than a rule to obey and respect.
[00:14:17] The most egregious example of this in recent years must surely be Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, in violation of international law.
[00:14:27] But you could also point to Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the US presidential election, Xi Jinping’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea or Jair Bolsonaro’s support of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.
[00:14:43] The point is, for the modern strongman, the normal international rules and norms do not apply.
[00:14:50] And when it comes to domestic politics, and tolerance of opposition voices, the normal international rules and norms certainly do not apply. If you speak out against a strongman, whether that be Putin, Xi, Bolsonaro or Erdogan, well your life will be made unpleasant at best, and at worst you might find that you have unfortunately fallen out of a tenth floor window.
[00:15:17] And our final characteristic of the modern strongman follows on the theme of domestic politics and abuse, and that is that the strongman wants to stay in power for as long as possible, and is even prepared to adjust the constitution of his country to do this.
[00:15:34] Erdogan has done it, Putin has done it, Xi Jinping has done it, even Trump tried to discredit the result of the election when it didn’t go his way.
[00:15:44] Right, let’s move on to the final part of the episode, where we’ll talk about the effect of the new era of the strongman, what this means both domestically, in the countries the strongman rules over, and the effect on global politics.
[00:15:58] We have, in fact, hinted at many of them already.
[00:16:02] On a domestic level, the preference of the modern strongman for strong immigration controls, crushing of the opposition and control of the media has caused there to be little viable opposition in many strongman countries.
[00:16:17] Nations like China and Russia might be extreme examples, but even the world’s largest democracy, India, has had its cherished status as the “world’s largest democracy” come into question.
[00:16:32] The NGO Freedom House, which publishes a “democracy score” for each country, changed its rating for India from “free” to only “partially free”, giving it the same score as Hungary, which of course is run by one of Europe’s most outspoken modern strongmen and favourite of Fox News, Viktor Orbán.
[00:16:55] In terms of the push for constitutional changes, normally to do with the maximum term length, these of course have long-lasting domestic implications. Not only do they mean that that particular strongman is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon, but it also makes it difficult to roll back those changes because the constitution has literally been amended.
[00:17:21] Now, in the interest of balance, the strongman would certainly argue that he brings a sense of law and order to a country that needs it.
[00:17:30] This is the main message of the strongman, and why this image of strength is so important.
[00:17:36] I am strong enough to crush my opponents, I am the strong leader you need to lift you out of this mess.
[00:17:44] In the Philippines, for example, the former strongman president Rodrigo Duterte, launched a campaign against drug dealers and drug addicts, once boasting that he would be prepared to kill 3 million drug users, an extreme declaration.
[00:18:01] But, clearly, this was a powerful message, and one that resonated with a particular group of people who felt like a restoration of law and order was exactly what their country needed.
[00:18:14] In fact, it resonated with more than just a particular group of people; Duterte had a 91% trust rating when he came into office. He and his policies were incredibly popular.
[00:18:28] And the other main appeal of strongman leaders is that they promise to deliver better economic growth than their weak predecessors, but unfortunately the statistics show that this does not always play out.
[00:18:43] Clearly, listeners in Turkey will know all too well that Erdogan has not steered the Turkish economy in a positive direction, and in fact, a large study from 2019 that looked at the economic performance of strongmen and dictators over the past 150 years showed that they tended to result in worse economic performance than their more democratic counterparts.
[00:19:07] So, even in the area for which many strongmen are voted into power, the economy, they end up underperforming.
[00:19:16] Now, let’s move onto the final section, the international impact of the rise of new era strongmen.
[00:19:24] On the one hand, the strongman is typically less interested in getting involved in international conflicts that do not directly affect the national security of his The strongman has only one interest: his own country, or perhaps if we’re being more cynical, staying in power in his own country, and anything that does not directly affect this interest will be deprioritised or ignored.
[00:19:51] But when it comes to international interests that are considered to be of deep national interest to the strongman, it is a completely different picture.
[00:20:02] If you recall, these new era strongmen are often modelled on the strongmen leaders of the 1920s and 1930s, brutal dictators whose international ambitions brought on a world war.
[00:20:16] Fortunately, this fate has not been repeated, but, as our Ukrainian listeners will know all too well, international sovereignty is something the modern strongman takes with a grain of salt, it is something to acknowledge but not respect.
[00:20:32] And the knock-on consequences are very dangerous.
[00:20:36] It seems clear that the war in Ukraine has not gone exactly how Vladimir Putin planned, but it has not yet been completely disastrous for him.
[00:20:46] Has he “got away with it”?
[00:20:48] Perhaps.
[00:20:49] Even if you think that he certainly hasn’t got away with it, it has shown other strongmen around the world, both strongmen in power and strongmen in waiting, what happens when you invade another sovereign nation.
[00:21:02] One must only hope that it is, at least, a suitably unattractive blueprint to follow.
[00:21:10] OK then, that is it for today's episode on the rise of the modern strongman.
[00:21:16]
[00:21:18] and that you've learnt something new.
[00:21:20] As always, I would love to know what you thought about this episode.
[00:21:23] Is your country ruled by someone who might be called a “strongman”?
[00:21:26] If so, who is it and what was their route to power?
[00:21:30] What other factors do you think come into play when we talk about the rise of the modern strongman?
[00:21:35] I would love to know, so let’s get this discussion started.
[00:21:39] You can head right into our community forum, which is at community.leonardoenglish.com and get chatting away to other curious minds.
[00:21:47] You've been listening to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.
[00:21:52] I'm Alastair Budge, you stay safe, and I'll catch you in the next episode.
[END OF EPISODE]
[00:00:05] Hello, hello hello, and welcome to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.
[00:00:11] The show where you can listen to fascinating stories, and learn weird and wonderful things about the world at the same time as improving your English.
[00:00:20] I'm Alastair Budge, and today we are going to be talking about an important political shift: the rise of the political strongman.
[00:00:29] Across the world, a series of so-called strong men are now in charge.
[00:00:33] Leaders who position themselves as strong and powerful, a defender of their citizens and their values, and men who are prepared to do anything to remain in power.
[00:00:44] So, in this episode we’ll discuss how this happened, who some of the key “strong men” are, the strategies that unite them all, and what this means for the world.
[00:00:56] OK then, The Rise Of The Modern Strongman.
[00:01:01] The famous political theorist Niccolò Macchiavelli once wrote, “Men judge generally more by the eye than by the hand, for everyone can see and few can feel. Everyone sees what you appear to be, few really know what you are.”
[00:01:21] Macchiavelli had a firm understanding of the importance of perception; what seems to be, rather than what is.
[00:01:31] Fast forward 400 years or so, and his countryman, and one of the fathers of the modern strongman, Benito Mussolini, had his own reasons to think carefully about this advice.
[00:01:45] Appearance is more important than reality.
[00:01:49] Mussolini, as you may know or as you may remember from episode number 343, was a journalist by training, and knew all too well the power of the press, the power of a persuasive article and a powerful picture.
[00:02:06] Mussolini wanted to present himself as a strong and powerful leader, someone who could lead a newly-unified Italy into the modern world.
[00:02:18] Mussolini’s problem, however, or at least something he felt acutely, was that he was very short, he was not a tall man.
[00:02:28] At 1.69 m, he would have been looked down on by much of the male population and a good chunk of the female population at the time.
[00:02:39] Although he was a powerful public speaker and was more than capable of inspiring a crowd, his stature posed him a problem. He thought that if people saw his small stature, his words would not have the same powerful impact.
[00:02:57] He solved this, reportedly, by a combination of making sure that he was always photographed from below, so that he appeared tall in photos, and standing on a box to make himself seem taller to the crowd, and therefore stronger and more powerful, more of a leader.
[00:03:17] Clearly, it worked, or at least he was able to project the image of a strong and decisive leader and as you will know, he went on to rule Italy for two decades.
[00:03:30] And Mussolini set an example that was followed by leaders not just in Europe, but all over the world.
[00:03:38] Think of a man, often clad in military gear, standing up straight with his chin jutting out.
[00:03:46] He is on a podium surrounded by flags, medals shining on his puffed out chest, as he takes the salute with his admiring soldiers marching rhythmically past.
[00:03:57] Now, you could replace Mussolini with a wide array of different leaders, from Franco in Spain, to Hitler in Germany or Stalin in the Soviet Union.
[00:04:08] They were a recognisable type – they caused massive, untold bloodshed and chaos across the world.
[00:04:16] But, with a few exceptions such as Franco in Spain, Mao in China or Pinochet in Chile, this type of strongman leader tended to fizzle out, at least in the countries where they had previously been popular.
[00:04:33] In most Western democracies at least, the post-war political landscape tended to be characterised by leaders who displayed a subtler approach to power, rather than indulging in authoritarian showmanship.
[00:04:48] After all, the international system that was created in the aftermath of the Second World War favoured a more pragmatic, rules-based approach to politics, the kind of international system which favoured a subtler and more diplomatic approach to politics.
[00:05:06] Global organisations such as the United Nations and International Monetary Fund were founded, and playing by the rules, obeying international law and being a democracy would give countries natural advantages.
[00:05:20] Indeed, in the aftermath of the war, as well as the process of decolonisation, there was a boom in the number of people living under democratic political systems.
[00:05:32] In 1945 there were only 12 democracies in the world. By 2002 there were 92, and there has been a general trend towards more open political systems and governments not dominated by one individual.
[00:05:48] But look around the political stage in 2023, or if you're listening to this in 2024, then I'm sure in 2024 and you will find dozens of leaders who buck this trend, they do not follow this example.
[00:06:04] Stylistically at least, they have more in common with people like Benito Mussolini than the leaders of liberal democracies in the late 20th century.
[00:06:14] From Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, India’s Narendra Modi to the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the former US President, Donald Trump, the political stage is filled with modern political “strongmen”.
[00:06:34] So, what’s going on?
[00:06:37] Why did strongmen “die out” for a period of 50 years or so, only to reemerge in the 21st century?
[00:06:45] Clearly, this is a vast and complicated topic, and the reasons for the rise of Modi are different to that of Vladimir Putin or Benjamin Netanyahu or Donald Trump.
[00:06:57] So, rather than examining the often unique circumstances and characteristics of every global strongman, we are going to split this episode into three parts.
[00:07:08] First, we’ll look at some of the common factors that brought the strongmen to power.
[00:07:13] Then, we’ll look at some of the common characteristics of the modern strongman.
[00:07:18] And finally, we’ll look at the effect of the world being strongmanified, and ask ourselves what comes next.
[00:07:26] So, firstly, what are some of the key factors that caused the rise of the modern strongman?
[00:07:33] Well there are five key factors that commentators typically point at.
[00:07:39] First, economic instability and inequality. Globalisation has created great wealth, but in developed and less developed countries, as we all know, this wealth is far from evenly distributed. For people who feel like they have been left behind by globalisation, a strongman who promises a return to a former situation where things were rosier, well this can be an attractive proposition.
[00:08:09] Secondly, and related to globalisation, mass immigration and large cultural changes. Change is scary, and the strongman typically positions himself as a guardian of the national identity, someone who will protect a country against a wave of people who look and sound…different and dangerous.
[00:08:35] Thirdly, the inefficiency of the existing governmental institutions. Donald Trump made a campaign promise to “drain the swamp”, describing Washington and the US government apparatus as filled with corrupt career politicians who cared more about lining their pockets than working for US citizens, and it was an incredibly effective message.
[00:09:00] Fourth, technological developments have made it far easier to spread information. The original strongman, Mussolini, was a journalist at heart, and he knew the power of controlling the information that the Italian people received. He was one of the first leaders to record his speeches so that they could be spread all over Italy, harnessing what was at the time the cutting edge technology of radio to amplify his message.
[00:09:30] And fast forward almost 100 years, and whether it’s social media in the Facebook or TikTok sense, or simple messaging apps like Whatsapp, the fact that information can be transferred so quickly and easily has created a fertile ground for polarising beliefs, which attract people to more polarising candidates, and strongmen are nothing if not polarising.
[00:09:57] And on this note, the fifth and final factor to mention is this increased polarisation of political beliefs, the increasing difference between those on the right and those on the left, and the shrinking space in the political centre.
[00:10:14] If we take the United States as an example, according to a recent Pew Research study, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican.
[00:10:33] In other words, there is very little overlap in political beliefs, the right has gone further to the right and the left has gone further to the left.
[00:10:43] To quote W.B. Yeats, “the centre cannot hold”, the political centre is, in many countries, an empty and lonely place.
[00:10:54] So, to recap, the five key factors that tend to be cited by commentators for creating the fertile ground for the modern strongman were economic instability and inequality,
[00:11:06] immigration and cultural changes, weak or inefficient institutions, technological developments and political polarisation.
[00:11:16] Of course, there are others in particular cases: religious division in the case of Modi in India, and national security in the case of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, but these five factors are ones that are most commonly seen in the countries in which strongmen have come to power.
[00:11:34] Now, let’s move on to look at some of the themes that unite the modern strongmen themselves, as individuals.
[00:11:43] The first one is that they tend to be men.
[00:11:47] You might have noted that I’ve referred to these strongmen as “he”, rather than the more gender neutral “they”, but the reality is, for better or for worse, the strongman genre has been almost unanimously male.
[00:12:04] If we go back a few decades, we could classify someone like “The Iron Lady”, Margaret Thatcher, as having “strongman” characteristics.
[00:12:14] And Giorgia Meloni, the female Prime Minister of Italy, could be categorised as a “modern strongman”. But, as of the time of recording this episode at least, she hasn't been quite as authoritarian as many of her critics feared.
[00:12:30] So, that’s our first theme that unites the modern strongman: they tend to be male.
[00:12:37] Secondly, the 21st century strongman is typically deeply nationalistic, promoting patriotism and loyalty to the nation state above global cooperation. No international alliance trumps the national interest.
[00:12:54] And thirdly, on a related note, the strongman is almost without exception anti-foreigner and anti-immigration. Our country is full as is, he says, we must tighten the borders and stop the flow of foreigners.
[00:13:11] The foreigner is almost always the enemy of the strongman, but he will usually add some more enemies in for good measure, scapegoats to point at and say “hey, these people are causing all of our problems”.
[00:13:26] Ethnic or religious minorities, the media, foreign countries, academics and intellectuals, political opponents, of course, and the global system more generally.
[00:13:37] Now, you might be listening to this and shaking your head, thinking “but group x or y are actually the root cause of many of our problems”, and this might be the case.
[00:13:48] I’m not suggesting that these are always wrong, but rather that the strongman is prepared to draw attention to a chosen enemy in a way that more traditional, mainstream politicians are not.
[00:14:02] Thirdly, the strongman will also flaunt international rules and norms, simply disregarding them as unnecessary, a minor inconvenience rather than a rule to obey and respect.
[00:14:17] The most egregious example of this in recent years must surely be Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, in violation of international law.
[00:14:27] But you could also point to Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the US presidential election, Xi Jinping’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea or Jair Bolsonaro’s support of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.
[00:14:43] The point is, for the modern strongman, the normal international rules and norms do not apply.
[00:14:50] And when it comes to domestic politics, and tolerance of opposition voices, the normal international rules and norms certainly do not apply. If you speak out against a strongman, whether that be Putin, Xi, Bolsonaro or Erdogan, well your life will be made unpleasant at best, and at worst you might find that you have unfortunately fallen out of a tenth floor window.
[00:15:17] And our final characteristic of the modern strongman follows on the theme of domestic politics and abuse, and that is that the strongman wants to stay in power for as long as possible, and is even prepared to adjust the constitution of his country to do this.
[00:15:34] Erdogan has done it, Putin has done it, Xi Jinping has done it, even Trump tried to discredit the result of the election when it didn’t go his way.
[00:15:44] Right, let’s move on to the final part of the episode, where we’ll talk about the effect of the new era of the strongman, what this means both domestically, in the countries the strongman rules over, and the effect on global politics.
[00:15:58] We have, in fact, hinted at many of them already.
[00:16:02] On a domestic level, the preference of the modern strongman for strong immigration controls, crushing of the opposition and control of the media has caused there to be little viable opposition in many strongman countries.
[00:16:17] Nations like China and Russia might be extreme examples, but even the world’s largest democracy, India, has had its cherished status as the “world’s largest democracy” come into question.
[00:16:32] The NGO Freedom House, which publishes a “democracy score” for each country, changed its rating for India from “free” to only “partially free”, giving it the same score as Hungary, which of course is run by one of Europe’s most outspoken modern strongmen and favourite of Fox News, Viktor Orbán.
[00:16:55] In terms of the push for constitutional changes, normally to do with the maximum term length, these of course have long-lasting domestic implications. Not only do they mean that that particular strongman is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon, but it also makes it difficult to roll back those changes because the constitution has literally been amended.
[00:17:21] Now, in the interest of balance, the strongman would certainly argue that he brings a sense of law and order to a country that needs it.
[00:17:30] This is the main message of the strongman, and why this image of strength is so important.
[00:17:36] I am strong enough to crush my opponents, I am the strong leader you need to lift you out of this mess.
[00:17:44] In the Philippines, for example, the former strongman president Rodrigo Duterte, launched a campaign against drug dealers and drug addicts, once boasting that he would be prepared to kill 3 million drug users, an extreme declaration.
[00:18:01] But, clearly, this was a powerful message, and one that resonated with a particular group of people who felt like a restoration of law and order was exactly what their country needed.
[00:18:14] In fact, it resonated with more than just a particular group of people; Duterte had a 91% trust rating when he came into office. He and his policies were incredibly popular.
[00:18:28] And the other main appeal of strongman leaders is that they promise to deliver better economic growth than their weak predecessors, but unfortunately the statistics show that this does not always play out.
[00:18:43] Clearly, listeners in Turkey will know all too well that Erdogan has not steered the Turkish economy in a positive direction, and in fact, a large study from 2019 that looked at the economic performance of strongmen and dictators over the past 150 years showed that they tended to result in worse economic performance than their more democratic counterparts.
[00:19:07] So, even in the area for which many strongmen are voted into power, the economy, they end up underperforming.
[00:19:16] Now, let’s move onto the final section, the international impact of the rise of new era strongmen.
[00:19:24] On the one hand, the strongman is typically less interested in getting involved in international conflicts that do not directly affect the national security of his The strongman has only one interest: his own country, or perhaps if we’re being more cynical, staying in power in his own country, and anything that does not directly affect this interest will be deprioritised or ignored.
[00:19:51] But when it comes to international interests that are considered to be of deep national interest to the strongman, it is a completely different picture.
[00:20:02] If you recall, these new era strongmen are often modelled on the strongmen leaders of the 1920s and 1930s, brutal dictators whose international ambitions brought on a world war.
[00:20:16] Fortunately, this fate has not been repeated, but, as our Ukrainian listeners will know all too well, international sovereignty is something the modern strongman takes with a grain of salt, it is something to acknowledge but not respect.
[00:20:32] And the knock-on consequences are very dangerous.
[00:20:36] It seems clear that the war in Ukraine has not gone exactly how Vladimir Putin planned, but it has not yet been completely disastrous for him.
[00:20:46] Has he “got away with it”?
[00:20:48] Perhaps.
[00:20:49] Even if you think that he certainly hasn’t got away with it, it has shown other strongmen around the world, both strongmen in power and strongmen in waiting, what happens when you invade another sovereign nation.
[00:21:02] One must only hope that it is, at least, a suitably unattractive blueprint to follow.
[00:21:10] OK then, that is it for today's episode on the rise of the modern strongman.
[00:21:16]
[00:21:18] and that you've learnt something new.
[00:21:20] As always, I would love to know what you thought about this episode.
[00:21:23] Is your country ruled by someone who might be called a “strongman”?
[00:21:26] If so, who is it and what was their route to power?
[00:21:30] What other factors do you think come into play when we talk about the rise of the modern strongman?
[00:21:35] I would love to know, so let’s get this discussion started.
[00:21:39] You can head right into our community forum, which is at community.leonardoenglish.com and get chatting away to other curious minds.
[00:21:47] You've been listening to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.
[00:21:52] I'm Alastair Budge, you stay safe, and I'll catch you in the next episode.
[END OF EPISODE]
[00:00:05] Hello, hello hello, and welcome to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.
[00:00:11] The show where you can listen to fascinating stories, and learn weird and wonderful things about the world at the same time as improving your English.
[00:00:20] I'm Alastair Budge, and today we are going to be talking about an important political shift: the rise of the political strongman.
[00:00:29] Across the world, a series of so-called strong men are now in charge.
[00:00:33] Leaders who position themselves as strong and powerful, a defender of their citizens and their values, and men who are prepared to do anything to remain in power.
[00:00:44] So, in this episode we’ll discuss how this happened, who some of the key “strong men” are, the strategies that unite them all, and what this means for the world.
[00:00:56] OK then, The Rise Of The Modern Strongman.
[00:01:01] The famous political theorist Niccolò Macchiavelli once wrote, “Men judge generally more by the eye than by the hand, for everyone can see and few can feel. Everyone sees what you appear to be, few really know what you are.”
[00:01:21] Macchiavelli had a firm understanding of the importance of perception; what seems to be, rather than what is.
[00:01:31] Fast forward 400 years or so, and his countryman, and one of the fathers of the modern strongman, Benito Mussolini, had his own reasons to think carefully about this advice.
[00:01:45] Appearance is more important than reality.
[00:01:49] Mussolini, as you may know or as you may remember from episode number 343, was a journalist by training, and knew all too well the power of the press, the power of a persuasive article and a powerful picture.
[00:02:06] Mussolini wanted to present himself as a strong and powerful leader, someone who could lead a newly-unified Italy into the modern world.
[00:02:18] Mussolini’s problem, however, or at least something he felt acutely, was that he was very short, he was not a tall man.
[00:02:28] At 1.69 m, he would have been looked down on by much of the male population and a good chunk of the female population at the time.
[00:02:39] Although he was a powerful public speaker and was more than capable of inspiring a crowd, his stature posed him a problem. He thought that if people saw his small stature, his words would not have the same powerful impact.
[00:02:57] He solved this, reportedly, by a combination of making sure that he was always photographed from below, so that he appeared tall in photos, and standing on a box to make himself seem taller to the crowd, and therefore stronger and more powerful, more of a leader.
[00:03:17] Clearly, it worked, or at least he was able to project the image of a strong and decisive leader and as you will know, he went on to rule Italy for two decades.
[00:03:30] And Mussolini set an example that was followed by leaders not just in Europe, but all over the world.
[00:03:38] Think of a man, often clad in military gear, standing up straight with his chin jutting out.
[00:03:46] He is on a podium surrounded by flags, medals shining on his puffed out chest, as he takes the salute with his admiring soldiers marching rhythmically past.
[00:03:57] Now, you could replace Mussolini with a wide array of different leaders, from Franco in Spain, to Hitler in Germany or Stalin in the Soviet Union.
[00:04:08] They were a recognisable type – they caused massive, untold bloodshed and chaos across the world.
[00:04:16] But, with a few exceptions such as Franco in Spain, Mao in China or Pinochet in Chile, this type of strongman leader tended to fizzle out, at least in the countries where they had previously been popular.
[00:04:33] In most Western democracies at least, the post-war political landscape tended to be characterised by leaders who displayed a subtler approach to power, rather than indulging in authoritarian showmanship.
[00:04:48] After all, the international system that was created in the aftermath of the Second World War favoured a more pragmatic, rules-based approach to politics, the kind of international system which favoured a subtler and more diplomatic approach to politics.
[00:05:06] Global organisations such as the United Nations and International Monetary Fund were founded, and playing by the rules, obeying international law and being a democracy would give countries natural advantages.
[00:05:20] Indeed, in the aftermath of the war, as well as the process of decolonisation, there was a boom in the number of people living under democratic political systems.
[00:05:32] In 1945 there were only 12 democracies in the world. By 2002 there were 92, and there has been a general trend towards more open political systems and governments not dominated by one individual.
[00:05:48] But look around the political stage in 2023, or if you're listening to this in 2024, then I'm sure in 2024 and you will find dozens of leaders who buck this trend, they do not follow this example.
[00:06:04] Stylistically at least, they have more in common with people like Benito Mussolini than the leaders of liberal democracies in the late 20th century.
[00:06:14] From Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, India’s Narendra Modi to the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the former US President, Donald Trump, the political stage is filled with modern political “strongmen”.
[00:06:34] So, what’s going on?
[00:06:37] Why did strongmen “die out” for a period of 50 years or so, only to reemerge in the 21st century?
[00:06:45] Clearly, this is a vast and complicated topic, and the reasons for the rise of Modi are different to that of Vladimir Putin or Benjamin Netanyahu or Donald Trump.
[00:06:57] So, rather than examining the often unique circumstances and characteristics of every global strongman, we are going to split this episode into three parts.
[00:07:08] First, we’ll look at some of the common factors that brought the strongmen to power.
[00:07:13] Then, we’ll look at some of the common characteristics of the modern strongman.
[00:07:18] And finally, we’ll look at the effect of the world being strongmanified, and ask ourselves what comes next.
[00:07:26] So, firstly, what are some of the key factors that caused the rise of the modern strongman?
[00:07:33] Well there are five key factors that commentators typically point at.
[00:07:39] First, economic instability and inequality. Globalisation has created great wealth, but in developed and less developed countries, as we all know, this wealth is far from evenly distributed. For people who feel like they have been left behind by globalisation, a strongman who promises a return to a former situation where things were rosier, well this can be an attractive proposition.
[00:08:09] Secondly, and related to globalisation, mass immigration and large cultural changes. Change is scary, and the strongman typically positions himself as a guardian of the national identity, someone who will protect a country against a wave of people who look and sound…different and dangerous.
[00:08:35] Thirdly, the inefficiency of the existing governmental institutions. Donald Trump made a campaign promise to “drain the swamp”, describing Washington and the US government apparatus as filled with corrupt career politicians who cared more about lining their pockets than working for US citizens, and it was an incredibly effective message.
[00:09:00] Fourth, technological developments have made it far easier to spread information. The original strongman, Mussolini, was a journalist at heart, and he knew the power of controlling the information that the Italian people received. He was one of the first leaders to record his speeches so that they could be spread all over Italy, harnessing what was at the time the cutting edge technology of radio to amplify his message.
[00:09:30] And fast forward almost 100 years, and whether it’s social media in the Facebook or TikTok sense, or simple messaging apps like Whatsapp, the fact that information can be transferred so quickly and easily has created a fertile ground for polarising beliefs, which attract people to more polarising candidates, and strongmen are nothing if not polarising.
[00:09:57] And on this note, the fifth and final factor to mention is this increased polarisation of political beliefs, the increasing difference between those on the right and those on the left, and the shrinking space in the political centre.
[00:10:14] If we take the United States as an example, according to a recent Pew Research study, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican.
[00:10:33] In other words, there is very little overlap in political beliefs, the right has gone further to the right and the left has gone further to the left.
[00:10:43] To quote W.B. Yeats, “the centre cannot hold”, the political centre is, in many countries, an empty and lonely place.
[00:10:54] So, to recap, the five key factors that tend to be cited by commentators for creating the fertile ground for the modern strongman were economic instability and inequality,
[00:11:06] immigration and cultural changes, weak or inefficient institutions, technological developments and political polarisation.
[00:11:16] Of course, there are others in particular cases: religious division in the case of Modi in India, and national security in the case of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, but these five factors are ones that are most commonly seen in the countries in which strongmen have come to power.
[00:11:34] Now, let’s move on to look at some of the themes that unite the modern strongmen themselves, as individuals.
[00:11:43] The first one is that they tend to be men.
[00:11:47] You might have noted that I’ve referred to these strongmen as “he”, rather than the more gender neutral “they”, but the reality is, for better or for worse, the strongman genre has been almost unanimously male.
[00:12:04] If we go back a few decades, we could classify someone like “The Iron Lady”, Margaret Thatcher, as having “strongman” characteristics.
[00:12:14] And Giorgia Meloni, the female Prime Minister of Italy, could be categorised as a “modern strongman”. But, as of the time of recording this episode at least, she hasn't been quite as authoritarian as many of her critics feared.
[00:12:30] So, that’s our first theme that unites the modern strongman: they tend to be male.
[00:12:37] Secondly, the 21st century strongman is typically deeply nationalistic, promoting patriotism and loyalty to the nation state above global cooperation. No international alliance trumps the national interest.
[00:12:54] And thirdly, on a related note, the strongman is almost without exception anti-foreigner and anti-immigration. Our country is full as is, he says, we must tighten the borders and stop the flow of foreigners.
[00:13:11] The foreigner is almost always the enemy of the strongman, but he will usually add some more enemies in for good measure, scapegoats to point at and say “hey, these people are causing all of our problems”.
[00:13:26] Ethnic or religious minorities, the media, foreign countries, academics and intellectuals, political opponents, of course, and the global system more generally.
[00:13:37] Now, you might be listening to this and shaking your head, thinking “but group x or y are actually the root cause of many of our problems”, and this might be the case.
[00:13:48] I’m not suggesting that these are always wrong, but rather that the strongman is prepared to draw attention to a chosen enemy in a way that more traditional, mainstream politicians are not.
[00:14:02] Thirdly, the strongman will also flaunt international rules and norms, simply disregarding them as unnecessary, a minor inconvenience rather than a rule to obey and respect.
[00:14:17] The most egregious example of this in recent years must surely be Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, in violation of international law.
[00:14:27] But you could also point to Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the US presidential election, Xi Jinping’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea or Jair Bolsonaro’s support of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.
[00:14:43] The point is, for the modern strongman, the normal international rules and norms do not apply.
[00:14:50] And when it comes to domestic politics, and tolerance of opposition voices, the normal international rules and norms certainly do not apply. If you speak out against a strongman, whether that be Putin, Xi, Bolsonaro or Erdogan, well your life will be made unpleasant at best, and at worst you might find that you have unfortunately fallen out of a tenth floor window.
[00:15:17] And our final characteristic of the modern strongman follows on the theme of domestic politics and abuse, and that is that the strongman wants to stay in power for as long as possible, and is even prepared to adjust the constitution of his country to do this.
[00:15:34] Erdogan has done it, Putin has done it, Xi Jinping has done it, even Trump tried to discredit the result of the election when it didn’t go his way.
[00:15:44] Right, let’s move on to the final part of the episode, where we’ll talk about the effect of the new era of the strongman, what this means both domestically, in the countries the strongman rules over, and the effect on global politics.
[00:15:58] We have, in fact, hinted at many of them already.
[00:16:02] On a domestic level, the preference of the modern strongman for strong immigration controls, crushing of the opposition and control of the media has caused there to be little viable opposition in many strongman countries.
[00:16:17] Nations like China and Russia might be extreme examples, but even the world’s largest democracy, India, has had its cherished status as the “world’s largest democracy” come into question.
[00:16:32] The NGO Freedom House, which publishes a “democracy score” for each country, changed its rating for India from “free” to only “partially free”, giving it the same score as Hungary, which of course is run by one of Europe’s most outspoken modern strongmen and favourite of Fox News, Viktor Orbán.
[00:16:55] In terms of the push for constitutional changes, normally to do with the maximum term length, these of course have long-lasting domestic implications. Not only do they mean that that particular strongman is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon, but it also makes it difficult to roll back those changes because the constitution has literally been amended.
[00:17:21] Now, in the interest of balance, the strongman would certainly argue that he brings a sense of law and order to a country that needs it.
[00:17:30] This is the main message of the strongman, and why this image of strength is so important.
[00:17:36] I am strong enough to crush my opponents, I am the strong leader you need to lift you out of this mess.
[00:17:44] In the Philippines, for example, the former strongman president Rodrigo Duterte, launched a campaign against drug dealers and drug addicts, once boasting that he would be prepared to kill 3 million drug users, an extreme declaration.
[00:18:01] But, clearly, this was a powerful message, and one that resonated with a particular group of people who felt like a restoration of law and order was exactly what their country needed.
[00:18:14] In fact, it resonated with more than just a particular group of people; Duterte had a 91% trust rating when he came into office. He and his policies were incredibly popular.
[00:18:28] And the other main appeal of strongman leaders is that they promise to deliver better economic growth than their weak predecessors, but unfortunately the statistics show that this does not always play out.
[00:18:43] Clearly, listeners in Turkey will know all too well that Erdogan has not steered the Turkish economy in a positive direction, and in fact, a large study from 2019 that looked at the economic performance of strongmen and dictators over the past 150 years showed that they tended to result in worse economic performance than their more democratic counterparts.
[00:19:07] So, even in the area for which many strongmen are voted into power, the economy, they end up underperforming.
[00:19:16] Now, let’s move onto the final section, the international impact of the rise of new era strongmen.
[00:19:24] On the one hand, the strongman is typically less interested in getting involved in international conflicts that do not directly affect the national security of his The strongman has only one interest: his own country, or perhaps if we’re being more cynical, staying in power in his own country, and anything that does not directly affect this interest will be deprioritised or ignored.
[00:19:51] But when it comes to international interests that are considered to be of deep national interest to the strongman, it is a completely different picture.
[00:20:02] If you recall, these new era strongmen are often modelled on the strongmen leaders of the 1920s and 1930s, brutal dictators whose international ambitions brought on a world war.
[00:20:16] Fortunately, this fate has not been repeated, but, as our Ukrainian listeners will know all too well, international sovereignty is something the modern strongman takes with a grain of salt, it is something to acknowledge but not respect.
[00:20:32] And the knock-on consequences are very dangerous.
[00:20:36] It seems clear that the war in Ukraine has not gone exactly how Vladimir Putin planned, but it has not yet been completely disastrous for him.
[00:20:46] Has he “got away with it”?
[00:20:48] Perhaps.
[00:20:49] Even if you think that he certainly hasn’t got away with it, it has shown other strongmen around the world, both strongmen in power and strongmen in waiting, what happens when you invade another sovereign nation.
[00:21:02] One must only hope that it is, at least, a suitably unattractive blueprint to follow.
[00:21:10] OK then, that is it for today's episode on the rise of the modern strongman.
[00:21:16]
[00:21:18] and that you've learnt something new.
[00:21:20] As always, I would love to know what you thought about this episode.
[00:21:23] Is your country ruled by someone who might be called a “strongman”?
[00:21:26] If so, who is it and what was their route to power?
[00:21:30] What other factors do you think come into play when we talk about the rise of the modern strongman?
[00:21:35] I would love to know, so let’s get this discussion started.
[00:21:39] You can head right into our community forum, which is at community.leonardoenglish.com and get chatting away to other curious minds.
[00:21:47] You've been listening to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.
[00:21:52] I'm Alastair Budge, you stay safe, and I'll catch you in the next episode.
[END OF EPISODE]
